FLOOD PRONE ZONES PREDICTION, USING SHALLOW WATER EQUATION MODEL

ABSTRACT

Flood is an overflow of water that covered the land surfaces that are normally dry. This includes overflow from water bodies such as river, lake, sea, ocean and so on, which can overflow because of heavy rainfall, snowmelt and/or dam break resulting in which water to escape out of its natural boundaries. A natural event occurs on the land surface that can affect people and the environment negatively or even positively. Assessment impact of flood and the vulnerability of habitable areas in Lagos State is of great significance. Several methods have been employed which are not fast and are cost-ineffective. The aim of this project was to develop a tool for predicting flood prone zones in Lagos, Nigeria using shallow water equation model. In this work, we modeled and simulated the 2-D shallow water system of equation using the spatial features of some selected areas in Lagos State. Five local governments were selected, namely, Agege, Ajeromi-Ifelodun, Apapa, Alimosho and Amuwo-Odofin. Results showed that Apapa is the least susceptible to flood and Ajeromi-Ifelodun is the most flood-susceptible of the five local governments. In this work, we have demonstrated the use of simulation to model flood in selected areas in Lagos State. This can assist policy makers in making informed decisions in several flood-prone terrains in Lagos State.

Keywords: Conceptual Models, Analog Models, Statistical Models, Physically-Based Model, Shallow Water Equations, SpatialMatrix